China's housing market is a resale one; transfer registrations lead the 70-city index

Thesis

Author: Freeman Lewin

September data landed with new-home prices still falling nationally, yet first-tier resale prices rose (Shanghai +0.5%), pre-owned transactions grew year-on-year for a second month, and unsold new-completion inventory slipped below 400m sq m. The claim: China's housing turn is transaction-led and city-split, so the 70-city new-home index - a posted, guidance-managed price - keeps printing declines in cities where resale turnover has already cleared. Falsified if first-tier transfer registrations and portal asking prices roll over too, or if lower-tier resale counts recover as fast. The test set is city second-hand transfer registries and listing panels, not the NBS print.

China local housing authority transaction registration data feed

Events

3 supporting

19 OCT 05:1236Kr
New Residential Property National Inventory Drops Below 400 Million Square Meters – First-Tier City Housing Prices Maintain Continuous Upward Trend - 36Kr
Our read
Unsold completions in square metres are developer-side stock; a falling stock is the channel that could let new-home prices stop falling without resale turnover moving, so it is the falsifier path as much as the support.
earnings-language deltanews.google.com
19 OCT 02:46Reuters
China's new home prices fall again as recovery remains elusive - Reuters
Our read
The same NBS release carries two different price objects: a posted new-home index and negotiated resale data. Resale rising while the new index falls is the signal that separates a guidance-managed price from a cleared one.
operating-metric inflectionnews.google.com
19 OCT 02:05BigGo Finance
China's September Home Prices: First-Tier New-Home Prices Extend Gains, Shanghai Resale Prices Lead Nation with 0.5% Rise - BigGo Finance
Our read
It splits the national print by city tier and by new versus existing stock, which is precisely the divergence the thesis says the headline index conceals.
channel-check divergencenews.google.com

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