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The Hike Cycle Reopens the Retail-Bank Repricing Gap

SIG/012Opened 17 SEP 26Updated 16 SEP 26

Thesis

Author: Freeman Lewin

The Federal Reserve’s first hike in three years, plus guidance for another in 2026, reactivates the retail-bank mechanism in which loan and card rates reprice faster than deposit yields. The claim fails if deposit APYs keep pace with borrowing rates and balances do not migrate from noninterest accounts into higher-yield products. Test it with daily advertised APYs and APRs, card and personal-loan offer feeds, and bank-level deposit balances and mix.

deposit pricing analytics vendor community banks credit unions software

Events

2 supporting
  1. 16 SEP 19:58Yahoo Finance

    Fed raises interest rates by a quarter point in unanimous decision, marking first hike in 3 years - finance.yahoo.com

    Our read

    The first upward policy-rate move in three years creates a fresh shock for measuring whether banks pass higher rates to borrowers faster than to depositors.

    operating-metric inflectionfinance.yahoo.com

  2. 16 SEP 18:38Yahoo Finance

    Fed officials' forecasts project one more rate hike to come in 2026 - finance.yahoo.com

    Our read

    The projected follow-on hike turns retail-rate pass-through from a one-day adjustment into a cycle that can be tracked across institutions and products.

    guidance-language deltafinance.yahoo.com

Datasets

8 datasets · names withheld
  1. Tickers
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    Access
    Novelty
    0.748
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Blended U.S. banking/fintech data — financial institution performance data (KFPI), technology vendor/tech-stack mix per financial institution (FinTegration Ecosystem: core processor, online/mobile banking vendor, debit/credit processor, bill pay, P2P), M&A data, branch/demographic data, and FI contact data, spanning up to 40 quarters of history. Small but established B2B data company — roughly 9-21 employees depending on source, ~$10M annual revenue, 25+ years of operating history, serving a large share of the U.S. banking/fintech market. Use cases: FinTech-to-bank sales targeting (i…

  2. Tickers
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    Access
    Novelty
    0.740
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Live and historical U.S. consumer financial product rates — savings, CD, mortgage, HELOC, and personal loan rates surveyed from hundreds of banks and lenders since 2007, now also distributed as a structured, timestamped, source-backed rate feed via an MCP integration into ChatGPT and other AI systems; includes a proprietary Mortgage Demand Index. Established, ad-supported consumer rate-comparison publisher with a multi-role team (Founder, Director of Operations, Director of Paid Media, EVP of Technology, Director of Lender Relations, VP of Business Development) — a mid…

  3. Tickers
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    Access
    Novelty
    0.728
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Proprietary deposit-pricing/behavior dataset — over 3 billion deposit records from 4,700+ bank/credit-union branches across 48 states, spanning two decades, covering pricing, attrition/retention, segmentation (bank/branch/product/customer/relationship), funding concentration, and non-maturity/time-deposit migration behavior. Established mid-size ALM/treasury [withheld] and software firm — 170 employees, ~$45.7M revenue, proprietary dataset covering 4,700+ branches nationwide. Use cases: ALM model assumption calibration, deposit pricing strategy, indus…

  4. Tickers
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    Access
    Novelty
    0.760
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Deposit-beta (repricing-sensitivity) metrics derived from [withheld]'s retained aggregate deposit-APY history — per-segment beta, implied repricing lag, current APY, and peer min/median/max bands for US credit unions. Small feature of a small, single-founder independent company ([withheld]); deposit-beta specifically is early-stage with under a year of retained history. Use cases: ALM/IRR (asset-liability management / interest-rate-risk) modeling inputs for banks and credit unions, treasury cost-of-funds forecasting, regulated treasury workflow analytics

  5. Tickers
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    Access
    Novelty
    0.755
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Structured financial product intelligence — live pricing, offers, eligibility rules, and market/price history across 60+ household-finance categories (banking, cards, mortgages, insurance, mobile plans, utilities, BNPL, transfers, etc.) in 47 countries, plus anonymized consumer comparison-behavior signals and AI-citation/visibility tracking. Mid-scale multi-market fintech data-intelligence company — 164,500+ users, 47 countries, 60+ categories tracked daily, with a small team (~4 employees per employment data). Use cases: Fintech competitive pricing intelligence, market-movement/off…

  6. Tickers
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    Access
    Novelty
    0.755
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Branch-level [withheld] rate intelligence — daily-updated CD/share certificate, savings, and money-market rates across 1,700+ US banks and credit unions, with promotional-rate tagging, branch-level (not just HQ-level) geographic benchmarking, and historical rate-change tracking. Mid-scale B2B fintech data/SaaS platform — 1,700+ institutions [withheld]ed, 60,000+ daily rate updates, 2.2M+ alerts delivered to date. Use cases: Competitive [withheld]-pricing intelligence for bank/credit-union treasury teams, dividend and rate-setting decision support, board reporting, treasury software i…

  7. Tickers
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    Access
    Novelty
    0.755
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Human-verified financial product/pricing data feed — CD & HYSA deposit rates (2,750+ products), credit card rates/scores (390+ cards), HSA provider scores (10 providers), transfer bonuses/point valuations, plus a full historical rate-change time-series (2,920+ rate changes since launch), sourced from institution disclosure pages and powering [withheld]'s own consumer sites (YourBestSavings.com, YourBestCards.com). Independent financial-data company operating at least three consumer-facing sites ([withheld], YourBestSavings.com, YourBestCards.com) off one shared verified dataset; mod…

  8. Tickers
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    Access
    Novelty
    0.740
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Proprietary Credit Card Value Index ([withheld]) — an auditable, single composite score plus four sub-indices (Acquisition, Rewards, Benefits, Fees) for 400+ US consumer and small-business credit cards, built from normalized card-term data (rewards, fees, promos, perks) modeled against realistic usage patterns, with 36+ months of monthly historical snapshots. Small, specialized competitive-intelligence boutique — roughly 6 employees, founded 2016, producing 300+ deliverables/year with 24-48hr turnaround for payments/credit-card industry clients. Use cases: Credit card is…

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