Meet us atNeurIPS 2026·Dec 6, 2026·Sydney, AustraliaInvited Talk @ NII Shonan·Mar 15, 2027·Hayama, Japan
Meet us atNeurIPS 2026·Dec 6, 2026·Sydney, AustraliaInvited Talk @ NII Shonan·Mar 15, 2027·Hayama, Japan

Farm Credit Cracks as Chinese Order Flow Fails to Materialize.

SIG/020Opened 30 SEP 26Updated 30 SEP 26TickersDEAGCOCFADMZS=FZC=F

Thesis

Author: Freeman Lewin

US row-crop farmers are going into harvest with diesel near its $6.53 record, fertilizer up about 50% and soybeans still tariffed at 10%, while China's duty cuts on corn, wheat and sorghum have produced no visible order flow — so the stress will surface first in farm-lender and equipment data, not in USDA export prints. The claim would be falsified if weekly export inspections and Cofco/Sinograin purchases accelerate into the fourth quarter while ag-bank delinquencies stay flat, or if a diesel export ban pulls Midwest fuel prices down sharply before loan-renewal season. Test it with Farm Credit System and ag-bank delinquency data, Chapter 12 filings by district, used-equipment auction prices, grain-elevator basis and co-op receivables, and crop-insurance claims.

grain elevator basis data service subscription

Events

4 supporting
  1. 30 SEP 00:00Bloomberg (via Yahoo Finance)

    Diesel export ban undergoing serious consideration by Trump team

    Our read

    A ban that pulls domestic diesel down from above $6.50 is the one input relief on the table and the main risk to the thesis. Midwest rack prices and farm-fuel delivery volumes would show whether it reaches the field before loan renewals.

    DEguidance-language deltafinance.yahoo.com

  2. 29 SEP 00:00Bloomberg (via Yahoo Finance)

    Demand Boost for US Crops Still Unclear After China Tariff Cuts

    Our read

    China cut duties on corn, wheat and sorghum but left soybeans at 10%, and futures fell on the news. Weekly export inspections and Cofco/Sinograin tender records are the check on whether the $17 billion pledge is real demand or a headline.

    ZS=Fchannel-check divergencefinance.yahoo.com

  3. 28 SEP 00:00CNN Business (via Yahoo Finance)

    'Is it really worth it to keep going on?' Economic pain hits America's farm belt

    Our read

    Diesel near its all-time high, fertilizer up 50% and farm bankruptcies up 20% in the year to June describe an input squeeze that crop revenue is not covering. Lender delinquencies and used-equipment resale prices would show how far it has spread before the next USDA income estimate.

    DEoperating-metric inflectionfinance.yahoo.com

  4. 25 SEP 00:00Bloomberg

    Grains Drop With Trump-Xi Summit Yet to Offer Farm Trade Details

    Our read

    The summit produced no farm-trade specifics and grains sold off, so the price channel is not rescuing margins before harvest. Country-elevator basis levels would show whether local demand is any better than the board.

    ZC=Fguidance-language deltabloomberg.com

Datasets

8 datasets · names withheld
  1. Tickers
    DE
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    —
    Access
    —
    Novelty
    0.745
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    [withheld] — Real-time and AI-forecasted commodity price data across 230+ grain and feed products in 168 countries, aggregated from public agencies, futures exchanges (CBOT, MATIF, Euronext, ICE), licensed partner feeds, and [withheld]'s own proprietary VPI benchmark index, plus vessel-lineup and trade-flow data.. Mid-stage Series A commodity-data vendor (~120 employees, $5.5M raised, ~$3.5M revenue range per firmographic data, 5,000+ platform users). Use cases: Procurement timing and basis-risk models, commodity price forecasting, supply-chain and trade-flow risk analytics, financial commodity tradi…

  2. Tickers
    DE
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    —
    Access
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    Novelty
    0.655
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    [withheld] — Aggregated agricultural loan portfolio, delinquency, and [withheld]-quality data across a 6-state footprint (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee) covering 137,000+ customers and ~$38.0 billion in owned/managed assets, including loan delinquency aging by loan type and NPA/NPL ratios.. ~$38.0 billion in owned and managed assets, 137,000+ customers across 391 counties in 6 states following the April 2023 merger with [withheld] [withheld] Midsouth. Use cases: Agricultural [withheld]-risk benchmarking, regional [withheld]-economy health indicators, delinquency/default for…

  3. Tickers
    DE
    Coverage
    Consumer Staples
    History
    —
    Access
    —
    Novelty
    0.750
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Aggregated + synthesized North American grain, input, weather, freight, and policy market data (44 source streams) repackaged as procurement decision signals (LOCK/HOLD/NEGOTIATE); the genuinely proprietary layer is a crowdsourced/submitted elevator cash-bid network and derived basis calculations not published elsewhere.. Small, early-stage subscription ag-data service (single founder-led company; tiered self-serve pricing from $99-$1,428+/yr suggests sub-$1M ARR). Use cases: Commodity procurement timing models, basis-risk forecasting, agribusiness cost benchmarking, precision-ag…

  4. Tickers
    DE
    Coverage
    Consumer Staples
    History
    —
    Access
    —
    Novelty
    0.745
    Request sample

    [withheld] — Geospatial farmer and on-farm grain storage database: bin counts, estimated bin sizes, and precise lat/long bin locations across U.S. farms, plus 8,000+ broader grain-industry records (elevators, distributors, warehousing), customizable by geography, crop region, or operational characteristics.. Very small (1-employee firmographic profile), boutique B2B geospatial data vendor serving the grain supply chain. Use cases: Grain origination and share-of-production strategy, crop-input sales territory planning and share-of-wallet benchmarking, storage-equipment sales …

  5. Tickers
    DE
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    —
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    Novelty
    0.730
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    [withheld] — Village- and district-level crop-yield, weather-index, and risk analytics data for Indian government crop insurance schemes (PMFBY yield-based, WBCIS weather-based), including historical yield performance, socio-economic risk factors, and loss/EP-curve modeling output used to price and structure reinsurance treaties.. Small-to-mid B2B analytics vendor (~56 employees per firmographic data), serving crop insurance companies across India's PMFBY/WBCIS ecosystem. Use cases: Crop insurance portfolio optimization and reinsurance treaty structuring, agricultural underwriting risk …

  6. Tickers
    DE
    Coverage
    Industrials
    History
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    Novelty
    0.642
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    [withheld] — Equipment Value Index (EVI) and Used Price Index — proprietary valuation data derived from [withheld]' own transaction and listing data across its used-equipment marketplaces (TractorHouse, MachineryTrader, TruckPaper, AuctionTime, EquipmentFacts, [withheld] Pacific), covering auction/retail/asking values, inventory levels, and model-year active-use equipment for farm, construction, and trucking assets, powered by the FleetEvaluator valuation engine on $140-182B in annual transactional data.. Large, established private company (~700-800 employees, ~$200-300M annual revenue, f…

  7. Tickers
    DE
    Coverage
    Financials
    History
    —
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    —
    Novelty
    0.632
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    [withheld] — Aggregated agricultural loan portfolio and credit-quality data across a 15-state Farm Credit District ($148.7B loan portfolio in 2023), including loan composition (retail vs wholesale), credit-quality classifications under the FCA Uniform Classification System, and financial performance metrics reported quarterly and annually.. $148.7 billion total loan portfolio (2023, up 11.4% YoY), $8.58 billion total shareholders' equity, spanning a 15-state Farm Credit District. Use cases: Agricultural credit-risk benchmarking, farm-lending market sizing, regional agricultural economic he…

  8. Tickers
    DE
    Coverage
    Industrials
    History
    —
    Access
    —
    Novelty
    0.618
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    [withheld] — Structured, enterprise-grade U.S. corporate [withheld] and restructuring dataset spanning pre-filing distress signals, Chapter 11 filings, docket/case activity, Section 363 asset sales, plans of reorganization, and emergence/liquidation outcomes, with 45+ years of history and 600k+ records, delivered via licensed data feed/API.. Established enterprise vendor marketed as the '#1 database used by AmLaw 100 law firms' with 600k+ records and 45+ years of history; Apollo firmographic data shows roughly $3M revenue range for its operating entity.…

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