Thesis
Author: Freeman LewinThe long-end Treasury selloff (30-year 5.56%, 10-year 5.24%) is pricing fiscal supply and inflation uncertainty rather than the Fed's path: the curve bear-steepened while October hike odds rose, so the long end is moving independently of the front end. The claim would be falsified if hot PCE and payrolls push the 2-year higher and flatten 2s10s, or if the 10-year breaks back below 5% on benign data. Test it with auction bid-to-cover and dealer takedown, foreign-official and custody holdings, issuance calendars, term-premium estimates, and swaption volatility.
Treasury auction bid-to-cover dealer takedown data provider
Events
4 supporting- 29 SEP 00:00Yahoo Finance
Trump's proposed diesel export ban 'is really a terrible idea,' analyst says
Our readA refined-product export ban stacks policy-driven energy inflation onto Iran-conflict costs and hot PMI input prices. High-frequency diesel and gasoline series would show whether it reaches breakevens before it shows up in PCE.
TLTchannel-check divergencefinance.yahoo.com
- 29 SEP 00:00The Hill (via Yahoo Finance)
Fed's Cook says AI demand 'broadening' to increase inflation
Our readA Fed governor linking AI capex to inflation ties data-center borrowing to a higher neutral rate plus a supply premium. Corporate AI bond issuance volumes would show how much of that borrowing is competing with Treasuries for the same capital.
^TNXcapex-expansion eventfinance.yahoo.com
- 29 SEP 00:00Yahoo Finance
US Treasury yields: 10-year 5.24%, 30-year 5.56%, 5-year 5.07%, 13-week bill 4.06%
Our readBills near 4.06% against a 10-year at 5.24% is bear steepening with the front end anchored: the market is demanding duration compensation, not more hikes. 5.27% is resistance and 5.00% would signal an overshoot.
^TNXoperating-metric inflectionfinance.yahoo.com
- 24 SEP 00:00Reuters
Global bond selloff rolls on, US 30-year yield at highest since 2004
Our readBunds at a 17-year high, JGBs highest since 1996 and Germany's record issuance make this a synchronized sovereign-supply story, not a Fed story. Cross-market auction and holdings data would show whether the premium is being demanded everywhere at once.
^TYXoperating-metric inflectionfinance.yahoo.com
Datasets
5 datasets · names withheld- Tickers
- ^TNX
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- 0.710
Request sample[withheld] — Live-captured US Treasury auction "tail" data (when-issued yield vs. high yield, captured seconds before each result) plus bid-to-cover and indirect/direct/dealer bidder splits across all UST tenors — a proprietary derived metric the company states official Treasury records do not publish. Early-stage small UK (Glasgow) startup, company incorporated Dec 2024, no funding data found; differentiated by MCP-native API access aimed at AI agents and quant desks rather than broad consumer scale. Use cases: Rates-trading signal generation, Treasury auction demand forecasting, …
- Tickers
- ^TNX
- Coverage
- Financials
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- 0.661
Request sample[withheld] — Institutional-grade real-time and historical US Treasury pricing data (670+ securities) sourced from [withheld]'s Bonds.com ATS and global interdealer broking screens, delivered via FIX (millisecond tick), SFTP snapshots (30-min/hourly/EOD). Large institutional-scale operation: data-commercialization arm of [withheld], a top-tier global interdealer broker group; this single product covers 670+ securities feeding global fixed-income desks, with a dedicated ~39-person data-product unit per company profile. Use cases: Bond pricing benchmark for portfolio valuation, collateral manag…
- Tickers
- ^TNX
- Coverage
- Financials
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- 0.657
Request sample[withheld] — Proprietary annual Reserve Manager Survey (RMS) — primary survey data collected from roughly 30 central bank reserve managers on FX reserve allocation strategy, currency diversification, and macro risk views, gathered through [withheld]'s exclusive Reserve Management Seminar relationship network (60+ central bank officials attend); the document itself is marked "Confidential" and "For qualified investors only," i.e. genuinely non-public, relationship-based data. Very large parent scale: [withheld] is a top-tier global wealth/asset manager (~103,000 employee…
- Tickers
- ^TNX
- Coverage
- Financials
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- 0.650
Request sample[withheld] — Model-free implied volatility indices for USD interest rate swaptions (48 liquid option-expiry/swap-tenor combinations), derived from ICAP's US Interest Rate Options Desk swaption prices — a proprietary OTC derivatives pricing/analytics product, not freely available. Large-scale institutional data business: [withheld] is TP ICAP's market-data and analytics arm, with ~200 employees and revenue in the ~$271M range per company profile, serving global capital markets desks. Use cases: Derivatives risk management, interest-rate volatility forecasting, structured-produc…
- Tickers
- ^TNX
- Coverage
- Financials
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- Novelty
- 0.575
Request sample[withheld] — Global macroeconomic and financial time-series database aggregating and standardizing data from national central banks, statistical agencies, and other primary sources (here: NY Fed SOMA holdings) into a unified, continuously updated subscription terminal spanning millions of series across 200+ economies — the licensable value is the standardization/curation/API-access layer across [withheld]'s full database, not this individual public NY Fed series itself. Large: [withheld] [withheld]/[withheld] has ~500 employees per company profile, London-based, part of a group with an M&A/consolidati…
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