Composite chokepoint-escalation risk model

Composite chokepoint-escalation risk model: a weighted 0-100 escalation score built from ten normalised indicator series, each stored with its own peacetime baseline, live reading, freshness timestamp and stress contribution. Indicators include live AIS Hormuz crossings (24h), daily commercial transits through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, a modelled Gulf war-risk premium as % of hull value, VLCC TD3C MEG-China freight earnings, intraday Brent front month, Saudi East-West pipeline (Petroline) Yanbu loadings, AIS-estimated Chinese imports of Iranian crude, Iran oil export estimates, US commercial crude and distillate stocks, and GDELT conflict-coverage tempo. Latent asset: the aligned multi-frequency panel (minutes-to-monthly cadences joined on one timeline with explicit staleness labels) plus the modelled war-risk premium series, which the site notes has no public price series at all because quotes are bilateral.

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Coverage

Universe, instruments and categories.

Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Instruments: equitiescommoditiesfuturesoptions
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Dataset card

Type: not stated
Format: Tabular time-series rendered as dashboard tiles and history charts; per-indicator pages expose latest reading, trailing-180-day history, baseline and model weight. No documented public API or bulk export located.
Volume: Small but dense: 10 indicator series x trailing-180-day history at per-indicator cadence (live AIS at minutes, Brent intraday, weekly EIA stocks, monthly trade estimates) plus one composite score series — order of tens of thousands of timestamped observations, i.e. a few MB. The 24h live AIS Hormuz crossing counter updates at roughly 5-minute cadence, the highest-frequency element.
Users: N/A — publicly readable single-operator analytical dashboard with no signup, login, account or paywall surface found on any page read; there is no registered-user base to size
History: not stated
Update frequency: not stated
Growth: Active — every tile carries a same-day (2026-10-08) update stamp with honest per-source staleness ages, and the model records a documented recalibration event (Aug 2026, reset to the post-escalation 3-10% quote range), indicating ongoing tuning rather than a frozen page
Launched: ~2026 — the project is built around the 2026 Hormuz escalation and the model was recalibrated in Aug 2026 'to the post-escalation market', implying the build itself is from the 2026 crisis window. Self-described as a side project, so launch is a personal go-live rather than a company founding.
Delivery: not stated
Entity mapping: not stated
Sample: not stated
Point-in-time: not stated
Licence: not stated

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