HORMUZSIGNALbuyer room · privateManage buyer room
Composite chokepoint-escalation risk model: a weighted 0-100 escalation score built from ten normalised indicator series, each stored with its own peacetime baseline, live reading, freshness timestamp and stress contribution. Indicators include live AIS Hormuz crossings (24h), daily commercial transits through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, a modelled Gulf war-risk premium as % of hull value, VLCC TD3C MEG-China freight earnings, intraday Brent front month, Saudi East-West pipeline (Petroline) Yanbu loadings, AIS-estimated Chinese imports of Iranian crude, Iran oil export estimates, US commercial crude and distillate stocks, and GDELT conflict-coverage tempo. Latent asset: the aligned multi-frequency panel (minutes-to-monthly cadences joined on one timeline with explicit staleness labels) plus the modelled war-risk premium series, which the site notes has no public price series at all because quotes are bilateral.
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