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Chokepoint-crisis dataset: 15-minute AIS-derived vessel manifest for the Strait of Hormuz (name, MMSI, type, transit/anchored status inferred from movement between reports, last fix age, DWT capacity), 5-minute intraday Brent/WTI series, per-vessel-type transit counts against rolling 30-day and fixed pre-crisis baselines (2025-02-28 to 2026-02-27), hand-curated war-risk insurance multiples and VLCC premia, composite crisis-pressure and escalation-probability indices with published components, OFAC-sanctioned-vessel flagging, and prediction-market probability/volume series from Kalshi and Polymarket.
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