A quantitative commodity-and-geopolitical risk research service

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A quantitative commodity-and-geopolitical risk research service (positioned as Research & Development plus multi-modal AI systems, not traditional advisory) that maintains a war-risk market monitor joining four otherwise separate series: risk-rating state per waterway from a joint maritime information centre (CRITICAL for the Arabian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, SEVERE for the Somali coast and basin, MODERATE for Bab el-Mandeb / Gulf of Aden / southern Red Sea as at 5 May 2026, each with cited update numbers), daily chokepoint transit counts against historical baseline (Hormuz at 6 transits on 3 May and 5 on 4 May against a ~138 vessels/day average), additional war-risk premium as a percentage of hull and machinery value with its path (about 2.5% early March easing to about 1% by week ending 27 March, peak reports near 10%, still up to eight times pre-war), and underwriter appetite survey percentages (about 88% appetite for international-linked hull war risk, above 90% for cargo) alongside named circular references for zone-listing changes and structural terms shifts such as annual Gulf cover being replaced by voyage-by-voyage cover.